Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Ancestry Updates DNA Results

Ancestry has just updated their ethnicity estimates for those who have done a DNA test with them, and like me there are many who are logging in to see what changes have occurred.

For most, there will be few surprises and no really major changes.  These adjustments take into account all the recent data added to the DNA database held by Ancestry, and uses them to (hopefully) give slightly more accurate ethnicity estimates for those who have tested their DNA.  For many who have been researching their family history for a while, their ethnicity estimates will be a rough reflection of what they already know about their ancestry.

The key is to remember that these numbers are estimates only.  DNA ethnicity is by no means an exact science.  These estimates are pretty good at the continental level, distinguishing between Europe, Asia and Africa, for example, in their estimates. Once they get below the continental level, to a regional or country level, all of them start to run into issues: country boundaries have changed; entire populations have moved; people from one area have invaded and intermarried with people from another.  All this makes accurate ethnicity estimates a challenge.

For me, once again my ethnicity estimates have changed slightly,  and, once again, they seem to have shifted a little further away from what I would expect.  My Germanic heritage has now disappeared completely.  I seem to have swapped it for a totally unexpected 9% Norwegian heritage - to date I have exactly 0 Norwegian ancestors in my tree.  At the same time, 33% Scottish seems rather high for the one great great grandparent who is the basis of the only Scottish line in my ancestry, while my Irish great grandparent only shows 2%.  My English ancestry was always high, as my father's entire family comes from Essex and Suffolk for generations back, and my mother's family has significant English heritage as well, so I would probable expect a higher number than the 54% I have now.


Ultimately, we need to remember that these numbers are estimates only, and can still be quite inaccurate.  More important to most who are actively researching are their cousin matches, people whom the DNA tests show are being related.  That is what I, and many other family history researchers, are truly interested in.

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